Encinitas Mayor Blakespear Could Land in Political Oblivion

“It’s true,” said local activist Larry Gomorka, “Blakespear could join Gaspar in the political graveyard. It’s too early to make a safe prediction, but some signals point in the headstone direction.

“In 2014, Pat Bates won the state Senate District 36 seat by 31.4%. In 2018, she won it by 3%. That’s a huge drop in support for the Republican candidate,” said Gomorka. “As of July 2020, there were 576,535 registered voters in District 36. Republicans had the edge with 36.5%, Democrats numbered 33.7%, and 24.1% declared no party preference. How that last category tilts could determine the outcome.

“Redistricting will happen this year and be in effect for the June 7 primary and November 8, 2022 general election,” said Gomorka. “Each state Senate district has about 931,000 people. It seems that number would be stable, maybe changing a little with an overall rise or decline in state population, or shifting slightly geographically to maintain equity among districts. At this point, it doesn’t seem redistricting will have much effect on the District 36 outcome.

“So far, two Democrats have declared as candidates and have websites,” said Gomorka. “They are Blakespear and Carlsbad City Council member Priya Bhat-Patel. Lisa Bartlett, a Republican Orange County Supervisor and former mayor of Dana Point, has a campaign committee open but hasn’t formally launched her candidacy.

“For a Democrat to win the seat,” said Gomorka, “the candidate would have to flip the district from red to blue. “The seat has been Republican since the district was formed, although the hold has weakened. Of registered voters in the district, Orange County has about 5% more than San Diego County. 

“Bartlett is likely to run,” said Gomorka. “If she does, she would be better known among Orange County voters where a Republican candidate already has advantages over a Democrat.

“Any Democrat has a tough row to hoe to win the Senate seat in District 36,” said Gomorka. “The primary is a little more than a year away. A lot will probably happen to affect the election between now and then. The timetable is such that if Blakespear doesn’t take one of the top two spots in the primary, she could still run for reelection as mayor of Encinitas.”