Does Primary 2nd Place Mean Blakespear Will Lose the General Election?

Considering the circumstances, the state Senate District 38 primary results so far are surprising. At end-of-day Friday, June 17, Gunderson’s lead over Blakespear had grown to 2.9% districtwide. With 536 votes left to process in Orange County and 4,600 projected outstanding in San Diego County, that lead is likely to hold or even increase.

Some 70% of District 38 voters are in San Diego County where Blakespear has been a prominent politician since 2014, but Gunderson was unknown until he entered the 2022 state Senate race as a candidate with no political experience.

Blakespear’s lead in San Diego County is 5.1%. Gunderson’s lead in Orange County is 22.8%

In the San Diego County portion of District 38, registered voters align as 42.7% Democrats, 30.6% Republicans and 26.6% no party preference. Orange County gives no figures for how their registered voters align. 

Some say that Democrat Joe Kerr’s voters (11.2% districtwide so far) will all switch to Blakespear and give her the win, but with her significant negatives and poor showing so far, that’s uncertain.

Turnout so far is 35% in Orange County and 34.8% in San Diego County. Certified results are due from the California secretary of state on July 15.