State Senate District 38: Gunderson Could Beat Blakespear

Democrat Catherine Blakespear must be running scared. In state Senate District 38, where more than 70% of the voters are in her home county, her neophyte Orange County Republican opponent is ahead by 1.8% in the districtwide primary race.

In his home county, Matt Gunderson leads by 21.6%. Blakespear’s home county lead is 6.1%.

Blakespear is in her third term as the elected mayor of Encinitas. Prior to that, she was an appointed Mobility and Traffic Safety Commission member and an elected City Council member for one term each, in sequence. She has been the unanimously elected chairwoman of SANDAG since January 1, 2021, having been vice chairwoman for two years before that. She has high name recognition in San Diego County.

Gunderson founded and owned three auto dealerships in southern Orange County. He has served on two foundation boards and in an auto dealers association. He has no experience in elective politics and prior to his state Senate candidacy was virtually unknown in San Diego County.

Turnout in San Diego County was 24.6% and 25.5% in Orange County. There are 195,000 ballots yet to be processed countywide in San Diego County and 133,109 in Orange County.

Of the 13,366 votes tallied so far for the 39 precincts in the city of Encinitas, Blakespear leads with 51.3% to Gunderson’s 34.8%. That’s a 16.5% margin.

Statistics cited in this post are as of June 11 at 5:01 p.m. for the California Secretary of State and Orange County Registrar of Voters, and as of June 9 at 5:04 p.m. for the San Diego County Registrar of Voters. The results are due to be certified on July 15.

All things considered, the tightness of the primary race is remarkable. With nearly five months until the November general election, District 38 should see some fascinating politicking.