Let the Serious Campaigning Begin!

The California secretary of state certified the state Senate District 38 election results on July 15. Here are some statistics:

Reg'd Voters  Dem    Rep     NPP     Other  Turnout

SDC             41.3% 27.1%  24.8% 6.9%   34.9%

OC               37.4% 33.3%  23.7% 5.6%   35.2%

                                                     

Candidate   Gunderson (R)     Blakespear (D)

SDC Votes       69,652        78,171

OC Votes       36,706        21,412

District Votes 106,358        99,583

% of Total        45.9%          43%

More that 70% of the district’s voters are in San Diego County. Considering Blakespear’s longevity and prominence in city and county politics, it’s surprising her margin in San Diego County was only 5.8%. When the count was nearly complete, she had 51.3% of the votes in Encinitas. 

Gunderson is a retired businessman with no experience in electoral politics. His margin in Orange County was 26.3%. He had 34.8% of the votes in Encinitas when the count was almost complete.

While Democrats outnumber Republicans in both counties, about 30% of the voters are registered in neither major party. That makes using party preference to predict outcome unreliable. 

Which way the bulk of differently striped independents vote in the general election should strongly influence the results.