Does Primary 2nd Place Mean Blakespear Will Lose the General Election?

Considering the circumstances, the state Senate District 38 primary results so far are surprising. At end-of-day Friday, June 17, Gunderson’s lead over Blakespear had grown to 2.9% districtwide. With 536 votes left to process in Orange County and 4,600 projected outstanding in San Diego County, that lead is likely to hold or even increase.

Some 70% of District 38 voters are in San Diego County where Blakespear has been a prominent politician since 2014, but Gunderson was unknown until he entered the 2022 state Senate race as a candidate with no political experience.

Blakespear’s lead in San Diego County is 5.1%. Gunderson’s lead in Orange County is 22.8%

In the San Diego County portion of District 38, registered voters align as 42.7% Democrats, 30.6% Republicans and 26.6% no party preference. Orange County gives no figures for how their registered voters align. 

Some say that Democrat Joe Kerr’s voters (11.2% districtwide so far) will all switch to Blakespear and give her the win, but with her significant negatives and poor showing so far, that’s uncertain.

Turnout so far is 35% in Orange County and 34.8% in San Diego County. Certified results are due from the California secretary of state on July 15.

State Senate District 38: Gunderson Could Beat Blakespear

Democrat Catherine Blakespear must be running scared. In state Senate District 38, where more than 70% of the voters are in her home county, her neophyte Orange County Republican opponent is ahead by 1.8% in the districtwide primary race.

In his home county, Matt Gunderson leads by 21.6%. Blakespear’s home county lead is 6.1%.

Blakespear is in her third term as the elected mayor of Encinitas. Prior to that, she was an appointed Mobility and Traffic Safety Commission member and an elected City Council member for one term each, in sequence. She has been the unanimously elected chairwoman of SANDAG since January 1, 2021, having been vice chairwoman for two years before that. She has high name recognition in San Diego County.

Gunderson founded and owned three auto dealerships in southern Orange County. He has served on two foundation boards and in an auto dealers association. He has no experience in elective politics and prior to his state Senate candidacy was virtually unknown in San Diego County.

Turnout in San Diego County was 24.6% and 25.5% in Orange County. There are 195,000 ballots yet to be processed countywide in San Diego County and 133,109 in Orange County.

Of the 13,366 votes tallied so far for the 39 precincts in the city of Encinitas, Blakespear leads with 51.3% to Gunderson’s 34.8%. That’s a 16.5% margin.

Statistics cited in this post are as of June 11 at 5:01 p.m. for the California Secretary of State and Orange County Registrar of Voters, and as of June 9 at 5:04 p.m. for the San Diego County Registrar of Voters. The results are due to be certified on July 15.

All things considered, the tightness of the primary race is remarkable. With nearly five months until the November general election, District 38 should see some fascinating politicking. 

Tuesday, June 7, 2022 Is California Primary Elections Day

By the look of his hat and outfit, the old man exiting Ralphs supermarket was a rancher. He carried a stuffed brown plastic bag in each hand. He grimaced as he passed a woman standing outside the door holding up a Catherine Blakespear State Senate sign for him to see. The man walked about 20 feet toward the parking lot, turned sharply to the woman and snapped, “She’s a communist! She’s a damn communist!”

Meanwhile, across the parking lot at Trader Joe’s, a white Tesla sedan with an Elect Joe Kerr California State Senate sign in its passenger-side rear window sat waiting for its owner.

At Barnes & Noble about two miles away, a man stood outside the door holding up a Matt Gunderson State Senate sign for all to see.

It’s unusual to see such passionate political activity for a state Senate primary.

Go Joe!

Joe Kerr Is No Joker

Democrat Joe Kerr is a retired firefighter and union official who’s running for California state Senate in District 38. His Republican opponent in the June 7 primary is Matt Gunderson, a former owner of Orange County car dealerships and a newcomer to politics. Kerr’s Democratic opponent is Catherine Blakespear, the mayor of Encinitas and chairwoman of SANDAG, San Diego County’s transportation planning agency. 

Kerr has been described as a lunchbox Democrat. That means he’s a traditional, old-school Democrat who’s not aligned with the extreme ‘progressive’ wing of the party that has taken over politics in California.

According to his website, “Kerr is a second-generation professional firefighter who served with the Orange County Fire Authority and Orange County Fire Department for over 34 years, including 27 years as a fire captain. He was the first President of the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, the former Vice President of the California Professional Firefighters, as well as a former Vice President of the Orange County Central Labor Council (AFL-CIO).”

Kerr says he is “running because we need leaders who will make decisions not based on political favor or expediency, but on doing what is right for our citizens.” He cites public safety, creating affordable housing, preserving single-family neighborhoods, achieving economic equity and recovery, and addressing homelessness, climate change, drought, and devastating wildfires as priorities.

Further, Kerr says he is “a common sense, creative problem solver with a proven, 25-year bipartisan track record of working with legislators on both sides of the aisle.” During his career, Kerr “sponsored over 200 pieces of public safety legislation that were signed by five governors and two presidents.”

While taking an aspiring politician at his word might be risky, Kerr sounds like the real deal.

Encinitas Activist Keeps Vow to Vote Against Blakespear

“For months, even years, I’ve been saying I’d never vote for Blakespear,” said Encinitas activist Larry Gomorka. “She’s been a total disaster for Encinitas and San Diego County, so there’s no way on Earth that I’d vote for her for state Senate. Putting her in a Senate seat would be spreading her local disaster statewide. And she’s power hungry and politically ambitious, do it’s a good bet her next run would be for governor or the federal Senate.

“I voted for Joe Kerr,” said Gomorka, “as much a strike against Blakespear as support for Kerr. He’s a decent, qualified guy and I’m sure he’ll do a good job of representing his constituents, which is something Blakespear has never done. She beats her own drum and has never given so much as a nod to following the residents’ wishes.

“Blakespear has high name recognition in San Diego County, where about 70% of District 38’s voters live and where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by more than 3%,” said Gomorka. “She has also raised a lot of campaign money — more like bribes, really — so the chances of her being one of the top two finishers in the June primary are high.

“If it becomes Blakespear vs. Gunderson in November, that would create a personal dilemma for me and, I suppose, many other voters,” said Gomorka. “I’ve never voted for a Republican, and I sure wouldn’t vote for Blakespear. I hope circumstances don’t force me to break a good lifelong habit.”

 State Senate Candidate Blakespear’s Mailer Amended